41 million and 48 draws without a winner. Tonight at 19:00.

This pot has been waiting since 16 May. That was the last time the jackpot was won. Since then: 48 draws. 172 days. Not a single rank 1 winner. And the empty pot from back then has become CHF 41 million . Tonight, Wednesday, 19:00 is the cut off. Fifty data points, documented without gaps Our jackpot analysis has been tracking this series since the win on 16 May – 50 data points, all based on published Swisslos amounts. No estimates, no interpolation. The curve does exactly what a rollover does: it drops to zero on 16 May, crawls through June, picks up speed in late summer and now stands at 41. This is one of the longest series our analysis has ever recorded. And it is the reason half of Switzerland will be watching tonight. What the series means – and what it doesn't Now the part where we have to stay honest, even if it dampens the excitement. The 48 draws without a winner change your chance by exactly zero. Tonight it stands at 1 : 31'474'716 per ticket – exactly as on 17 May and exactly as it will in a year. The balls have no memory. A long series is a feature of randomness, not an announcement. What the series has very much changed is the size . And that is the only honest reason to play tonight instead of on any other Wednesday: not because it would be more likely, but because a win would be worth more. Our model estimates around 2'064'494 tickets submitted for tonight's draw. That gives a probability of 6.35% that someone will crack the jackpot tonight. Over two draws it is 12.6%, over eight around 41.7%. Please read that carefully: that is the chance that someone wins. Not yours. Anyone who confuses these two numbers confuses hope with mathematics. The most uncomfortable number we can show you Most providers would leave out the next paragraph. We won't. The calculated model value of a ticket tonight is CHF 2.12 – against a stake of CHF 2.50. That is 84.8% of the stake. On average, a ticket therefore loses money. Even at 41 million. Why do we still write this? Because it is true. And because lotto is not an investment, but a ticket into a dream that lasts a few hours. Anyone who knows this plays more relaxed – and only stakes what they can comfortably lose. The one lever you really have Of the model value, CHF 1.26 goes to the jackpot share. And this share is at risk of being shared: if you win tonight, there is a 6.3% probability that someone else wins at the same time. In expected value, 96.8% of the pot would remain for you. This is exactly where your only real influence lies. Not on the chance – on the sharing. Anyone who plays popular numbers shares more often. Millions of tickets never go beyond 31 because they reflect birth dates. So pick at least two numbers from the range 32 to 42. Costs nothing, takes two seconds, and could make millions of difference in the event. The same applies to patterns on the slip: diagonals, crosses, 1 2 3 4 5 6. All popular, all massively overplayed. And if it works out? Of 41 million, the first CHF 1'071'000 is tax free . On the rest, the Confederation deducts 35% withholding tax at payout – but note: this is not a final settlement, but a security levy. Anyone who declares correctly gets it refunded. The real calculation is then made by income tax – and in Switzerland that is a cantonal and municipal matter: Place of residence Of 41 million, roughly remained Zug 32 million Appenzell Innerrhoden 31 million Vaud 24 million Geneva 23 million Approximate values, converted from a published cantonal comparison. The actual burden also depends on the municipality, marital status and other income – we are not tax advisors. Nine million difference, solely because of the postcode. But even at the lower end, 23 million at the Swiss median salary is around 278 years of work. Tonight, 19:00 This jackpot needed 48 draws to get here. Perhaps it needs a forty ninth. Perhaps not. Stake an amount whose loss you won't feel tomorrow. Five francs is enough. And then the best hours of the day belong to you – the ones between submission and draw, when everything is still open. → Play now at Swisslos https://www.swisslos.ch/de/swisslotto/einzeltipps/spielen.html tipp → Create a forecast and enter the slip in the playbook https://lottoprognose.ch/auth?tab=register If you don't play, you can't win either. We wish you good luck tonight. 🍀